🏛️🤝 India signs major trade agreement with the US amid farmer protests

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India has officially signed a significant trade agreement with the United States, marking a pivotal shift in its economic strategy. Announced on February 8, 2026, the agreement includes a reduction of US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% and a commitment from India to progressively eliminate its tariffs, aiming for zero tariffs on a wide range of products. In return, India will purchase $500 billion worth of goods from the US over the next five years.

What changed?
The deal was revealed by former President Donald Trump on social media, following a direct conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This agreement comes on the heels of another trade pact with the European Union, which aims to eliminate tariffs on over 96% of products traded between the two regions. The recent agreements signal a strategic pivot for India, which has historically maintained a more protectionist stance in its trade policies.

Domestic backlash
However, the agreement has sparked significant concern among Indian farmers, who fear an influx of American agricultural products could undermine local markets. The farmers' union, Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM), has criticized the government for making excessive concessions and has called for a nationwide protest on February 12. Farmers worry that the removal of tariffs on products such as nuts, fresh fruits, and soybean oil will lead to a flood of cheaper imports, threatening their livelihoods.

Economic implications
Despite the concerns, Modi has touted the deal as an opportunity to access a $30 trillion market for Indian exporters, emphasizing that it protects the interests of farmers and fishers. However, the agricultural sector, which employs over 700 million people, remains apprehensive. With 80% of Indian farmers operating on less than two hectares, many lack the capacity to compete with heavily subsidized American agriculture.

What’s next?
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has stated that sensitive sectors, including cereals and dairy, were excluded from the agreement, but the overall sentiment among farmers remains one of anxiety. The potential for increased imports is underscored by a 34% rise in US agricultural imports to India in 2025, indicating a trend that could intensify with the new agreement.

Geopolitical context
This trade agreement not only reshapes India's economic landscape but also its geopolitical stance. By aligning more closely with the US and EU, India appears to be recalibrating its relationships within the BRICS bloc, which includes Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa. The implications of this shift are significant, as India navigates its role in a rapidly changing global economy.

As the situation develops, the balance between domestic agricultural interests and international trade commitments will be closely monitored, particularly in light of the upcoming protests and ongoing negotiations with other global partners.

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