🏛️ Division over EU-Mercosur agreement threatens ratification in the European Parliament

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The ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, signed on 17 January 2026 in Paraguay, faces significant hurdles as the European Parliament remains divided. This agreement, which took 25 years to negotiate, must now undergo parliamentary scrutiny, with a vote scheduled for Wednesday on a draft resolution requesting the Court of Justice of the EU to assess its legality. This legal review could potentially suspend the ratification process.

Political Divisions
Opposition to the agreement has emerged from several EU member states, notably France, Poland, Ireland, Austria, and Hungary. French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized that the signing does not conclude the debate, indicating ongoing resistance within the Parliament. The division reflects broader concerns about the implications of the deal for local agriculture and market competition.

Economic Stakes
The agreement proposes to eliminate tariffs on more than 91% of European exports over 15 years, while Mercosur countries—Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay—would see tariffs on 92% of their exports phased out over up to 10 years. Proponents, including the Portuguese government, argue that the deal could help erase a €500 million trade deficit with Mercosur, creating opportunities for sectors like wine, olive oil, and cheese. Agriculture Minister José Manuel Fernandes described the agreement as essential for Portugal, suggesting it could lead to a trade surplus.

Concerns from Farmers
Despite government optimism, agricultural associations have raised alarms about the potential negative impacts on local farmers. The Confederação dos Agricultores de Portugal (CAP) acknowledged the opportunities but stressed the need for strict enforcement of the agreement to protect sensitive sectors. The Confederação Nacional da Agricultura (CNA) warned that the deal could lead to more losses than gains, particularly for beef, pork, and poultry sectors, arguing that EU agriculture is being compromised for the benefit of larger industries.

Market Monitoring and Compliance
The agreement includes provisions for compliance with EU sanitary and phytosanitary standards, enhanced control mechanisms, and environmental commitments. However, agricultural cooperatives have expressed skepticism about the government's assurances, calling for increased investment in the agri-food sector to bolster competitiveness. The Associação dos Jovens Agricultores de Portugal (AJAP) urged caution, highlighting disparities in labor costs and agricultural standards between the EU and Mercosur countries.

Next Steps
As the European Parliament prepares for the upcoming vote, the outcome remains uncertain. The legal assessment could significantly influence the future of the EU-Mercosur agreement, with implications for trade relations and local agricultural sectors across Europe.

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