📊🇪🇺 ECB forecasters revise inflation and GDP outlooks

Oneliner

The ECB's latest survey indicates that inflation in the euro area is expected to dip below 2% in 2026, returning to the target of 2% by 2027. Economic growth estimates for 2026 have been revised upward to 1.2%, with further growth anticipated in subsequent years. Unemployment rates are projected to remain stable at 6.3% for 2026. The ECB has opted to keep interest rates unchanged, citing a stable inflation outlook.

Key points

• Inflation is projected to dip below 2% in 2026, returning to the 2% target by 2027.
• GDP growth estimates for 2026 have been raised to 1.2%, with a further increase to 1.4% in 2027.
• Unemployment rates are expected to remain stable, with a forecast of 6.3% for 2026.
• The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged, citing a stable inflation outlook.

Links

• Cadena SER: José Luis Escrivá: "En este momento, lo mejor es mantener los tipos de interés, pero esto no impide que podamos reevaluar la situación"
• BFMTV: "La victoire contre l'inflation est acquise": bonne pour le pouvoir d'achat et la compétitivité, la forte...
• ANSA: Bce, la stima dei previsori migliora il Pil 2026 a 1,2% per l'area euro - Notizie - Ansa.it
• Reuters: Euro zone inflation to rebound to target next year, ECB survey shows
• Il sole 24 ORE: Bce: previsori alzano stima pil 2026 di un decimo a +1,2%, poi 1,4% nel 2027 - Il Sole 24 ORE

Facts

• Inflation forecast: 1.8% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028.
• GDP growth forecast: 1.2% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027.
• Unemployment rate: 6.3% in 2026, 6.2% in 2027.
• ECB interest rates remain unchanged as of February 6, 2026.

Quotes

• Risks remain unusually high but are broadly balanced, so policy is in a 'good place' — Christine Lagarde

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